Dear Warwick Wealth Clients and Partners

What a year it has been — eventful, full of surprises, and ultimately, very rewarding for many of us. As we approach the end of 2025, I wanted to take a moment to reflect on how the markets have performed, share some context on what drove these results, and offer a few thoughts on 2026 and beyond.

Looking back on 2025, a lot has happened on the global front: the inauguration of Donald J. Trump brought about renewed volatility and reshaped global trade dynamics. His policies and the ripple effects across emerging markets certainly attracted headlines, especially in emerging economies like ours. Whether you view them favourably or not, there’s no denying they stirred up global markets and sentiment, including here in South Africa. Many will recall his televised meeting with Cyril Ramaphosa — a moment steeped in both symbolism and concern for global investors.

Yet despite, or perhaps because of, the turbulence, 2025 turned out to be a strong year for investors with exposure to money markets, bonds, and select equities. As of 31 November:

• Money markets delivered approximately 7% return year-to-date.
• The local bond market (FTSE/JSE All Bond Index) posted returns close to 21%.
• The South African equity market (FTSE/JSE All Share Index) returned nearly 36%.
• Meanwhile, the US dollar lost ground against the Rand by some 75%, even as the S&P 500 Index gained about 17.5% (around 7% in Rand).

The stellar performance of our local market wasn’t accidental. Some of the main contributors were:

• Naspers, up almost 30%, and Prosus, up some 40% — both heavyweights on the JSE and major drivers of overall market gains.
• A global upswing in commodity prices, especially gold, which climbed close to 60% — a powerful boost given the precious metal’s historic role in the South African economy.
• The surge in the FTSE/JSE Precious Metals and Mining Index, with the relevant index rising from about 5 622.76 to around 16 717.93 — more than 200% in 2025 alone.

In short: strong tech-heavy equities, commodities, and mining stocks, along with a weaker dollar, combined to deliver a very generous outcome for many of our clients. As the saying goes: we should never look a gift horse in the mouth.

What about 2026?

Naturally, many of you are asking: “What next?” Should one reinvest in mining? Rotate into tech? Is the Rand now overvalued against the US dollar? The honest answer is that nobody knows. Indeed, forecasting with precision is a fool’s game.

That’s why more than ever, the discipline of diversification remains fundamental. Splitting investments across asset classes (equities, bonds, cash, commodities, global and domestic) helps manage risk and smooth returns over time. For most investors, working with a trusted financial advisor and an investment team makes the difference, combining our market insight with your personal goals, risk tolerance, and time horizon.

So, whether you’re inclined toward mining, technology, global equities, or bonds, the goal should remain the same: build a balanced portfolio that allows you to capture opportunity while guarding against downside.

In closing

Thank you for entrusting us with your financial well-being. We are deeply honoured to serve you and proud of what we’ve achieved together in 2025. As always, we remain committed to supporting you through whatever 2026 brings.

Wishing you and your loved ones a peaceful and joyful holiday season.