The Future of The United States

And Why It’s Important For South Africa.

Director of Communications, Tim Hughes 

Now that we know who the respective Presidential candidates are in the United States election race, it is worth considering what a Harris or Trump presidency may mean for South Africa.

The US elections will be held on Tuesday 5 November and we can expect fireworks. On the one hand, we have a reasonably good idea what a Trump 2.0 presidency would bring at the policy level. Simply put, Trump is committed to putting “America First” and more ambitiously perhaps, “Making America Great Again”. Trump is a populist and enjoys almost religious support from his base which appeals to the mid-West, the rust belt and voters from all walks of life disaffected with issues such as high illegal immigration and the escalating cost of living. But at the ideological, emotional and identity level, many Trump supporters hanker after the way things were, when they enjoyed an unmatched quality of life, job security and a bright future.

Trump fingers liberal Democratic policies as having caused this crisis of confidence in the US and the political elite in Washington DC for being insensitive to or ignoring the plight of ordinary Americans facing a decline in their quality of life. Internationally, Trump points a finger at China (with some justification) for undermining American competitiveness and effectively taking jobs and exports, not to mention skills, technology and investments away from the US. Trump is also a NATO sceptic and an Afropessimist.

This has implications for South Africa and its relations with the US. While the US is a major investor in and trade partner of the US and this will continue as long as our local conditions make our market attractive, a Trump 2.0 presidency is likely to downgrade our bilateral relationship. Republicans more broadly are skeptical of South Africa’s own foreign policy orientation with respect to the BRICS and China/Russia in particular and feel that SA does not deserve any preferential trade, political or diplomatic treatment. This has implications for South Africa’s continued membership and benefits from the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA).

What then of a possible Harris/Walz Democratic Presidency? The truth is that unlike President Biden, Kamila Harris is an unknown quantity in the field of foreign policy as is her Vice President running mate, Tim Walz. What we do know is that traditionally, US Democrats and their Presidents tend to take African matters more seriously and invest more time, aid and support to Africa. More particularly, Democrats such as Bill Clinton, Barack Obama and Joe Biden view South Africa as a key strategic partner and upgraded our relations during time in office.

Whatever the outcome then, the 2024 US Presidential election outcome will be important for South Africa.