Dear Readers,

Who would ever have thought a geeky boy from Pretoria Boys High would one day be standing in the White House Oval Office exercising so much power globally? Like him or not, South African born Elon Musk is clearly a disruptor who has the ear of and is trusted by US President Trump. 

Theoretically, this could be in South Africa’s favour, but the reality is proving to be quite different and is starting to have an impact on our shores. The cutting of US funding and aid to South Africa is a serious matter financially and in terms of investment and sentiment. Moreover, the executive order signed by President Trump to provide refugee status to Afrikaner farmers is possibly the most remarkable policy towards South Africa since the 1980s. 

President Trump is also clearly unhappy with South Africa’s foreign policy towards Israel and its orientation towards China, Russia, Iran and other foreign powers. While as a sovereign nation South Africa is entitled to follow a foreign policy orientation of its choosing, it is also good diplomacy to manage key diplomatic relations with your major trading partners wisely, irrespective of political and ideological differences. Pretoria may disagree with Washington on a raft of issues, but the reality we have to deal with soberly and maturely is that we are a relatively small economy and a second-tier player on the global stage and the US is our second biggest single trading partner. Millions of our citizens are also dependent on the life-giving support of the US Presidential Emergency Plan for Aids Relief (PEPFAR), and it is vitally important not to lose this. 

Moreover, the signs are not good that South Africa’s membership of African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA) will be maintained. To lose AGOA benefits will significantly impact South Africa’s world class motor industry for example and all the ancillary sectors along the value chain. In a country with 40% unemployment and an economy barely able to grow above 1%, we should do all we can to protect and preserve our key trading relationships, particularly those that provide favourable terms and advantages.

This is just one of the critical international issues that South Africa will need to navigate in 2025 in order to make the promises made in the 2025 State of the Nation Address a reality. 

But the real ‘State of the Nation’ address will be delivered by the Minister of Finance, Enoch Godongwana, on Wednesday 19 February and Warwick will provide timely commentary on this highly important speech.

Until next month, look after your wealth and look after yourselves.