Optimum April 2025>Global Review April 2025

Introduction from Orion Investment Managers’ Managing Director, Adrian Meager

World markets’ volatility intensified as the Trump ‘tariff tantrum’ impacted policy uncertainty surrounding the ‘on-again/off again’ tariffs. Renewed US recession fears, inflation concerns, weaker consumer sentiment and heady equity valuations, have contributed to the negativity in the markets with investors having to deal with policy uncertainty daily.

Since the second Trump presidency, US markets have underperformed on a quarterly and monthly basis. In March, the Nasdaq was the worst performing index in the US, losing 8.2% for the month, with the S&P 500 losing 5.8%, and the Dow, weaker by 4.2%.

The UK market also endured a weaker March, with the FTSE 100 ending the month lower by 2.6%, as UK inflation for February printed at 2.8% YoY, slowing from the January print of 3.0% YoY, with core inflation also down from the January print of 3.7% YoY to 3.5% YoY in February.

Major European markets also ended the month on the back foot for the first time in 2025, highlighting the negative impact of the Trump tariffs. However, with rising optimism, Europe is being viewed as an attractive investment alternative to the US. The German Dax closed the month weaker by 1.7%, while the Cac in France closed lower by 4.0%. Inflation in the Eurozone in February eased to 2.3% YoY, compared to the January print of 2.5%, with core inflation printing at its lowest level since January 2022, coming in at 2.6% YoY.

In Asia, while the US imposed auto tariffs caused some initial concern, this didn’t dampen Asian markets, with positive policy signals from Beijing, added to the hope of new technological innovations. The Hang Seng closed marginally higher, up 0.8% for the month, and the Shanghai Composite up 0.4% for the month.

In Japan, the Nikkei ended the month lower by 4.1%, as concerns around the impact the Trump tariffs would have on the Japanese economy. Japanese core inflation for February printed at 3.0%, lower than the January print of 3.2%, surpassing market expectations, but reinforcing concerns about persistent price pressures.

On the local front, on the back of the Trump tariffs and the increased anxiety caused, we saw a flight to quality and safety with resources being the star performers on the market, with gold and platinum counters outperforming. The All-Share Index closed the month 3.1% higher, as well, closing at an all-time high on March 19 of 90,149.7. Resources ended the month higher by 19.5% with the gold price jumping 9.3%, with platinum up 5.1%, palladium up 7.4% and Rhodium up 20.6% leading the gains.